Insight into creating rankings
Focus on your tiers and how you construct each team you draft. Just because a player is ranked higher or lower does not mean you can’t make adjustments on the fly in each specific best ball draft. If drafting 0.5 PPR? Players that offer higher touchdown upside become more valuable. However do not pass on 100+ target PPR receivers. Do not over think a player’s value. I rank players higher or lower than the current consensus. I am not here to be average. I am here to forecast the upcoming season and potential outcomes. I enjoy winning and a huge proponent of winning is drafting players at value per your rankings.
An example would be Jerry Jeudy. He has rocketed up the draft board. If you forecasted the potential Quarterback change, recognized Jeudy’s talent, situation and drafted shares before the Russell Wilson trade. Then you are going to gain an edge on the field if Jeudy performs as you project with an improved Quarterback situation. If Jeudy gets injured or doesn’t show out when healthy in 2022. Then you are still in a position to win your respective 12 team best ball league and advance to Rd 2 Playoffs of these large GPP tournaments.
If you only decided to draft Jeudy once the trade finalized. Then you are drafting him closer to his ceiling which creates less draft value and if he doesn’t perform in these cases. Then your team has a higher probability of not making Rd 2 because you could have drafted a potential quality player where you drafted Jeudy. As opposed to prior to the trade where you would draft that quality player and then scoop Jeudy a few rounds later. Those days have now past us bye. Who is the next wide receiver that is an ADP value currently? What are the potential outcomes that would improve or lower this player’s ceiling? Now go draft that player and never forget there are more unknowns in March then in August. Understand the risks you take and create a plan for how you will gain your edge.
Throughout the year as I update my player rankings I develop a full Fade That Man list. Focus on drafting teams that advance to Rd 2 in hopes of free rolling in the playoffs with a shot at the big wins. Listen to the main stream media with a grain of salt and always value the opinions of the experts you respect in this growing industry. There are quite a few fantasy football experts who do the research and have been grinding for years. Do not dismiss their opinions. Rather ask yourself if you need to adjust and adapt as information/news becomes available.
When utilizing statistics never lose sight of what your eyes see from a player on the field. An example of this would be mutant athletes such as DK Metcalf, AJ Brown or Jonathan Taylor. Just look at them? They are clearly a cut above the rest physically. I will target these types of players regardless of what many say. They said DK only runs streaks and lacks a route tree. The haters forgot he is a mutant and landed with Russell Wilson’s moon ball his rookie year, the overall team situation was advantageous for targets and an immediate impact ensued. How many receivers look like DK physically and run that fast?
Did you see AJ Brown’s YAC highlights coming out of college and how yoked he is? He could be a running back if he wanted and his hands were above average. He then landed on a team that had King Henry which meant single coverage situations. As well as being a rookie with 100+ target situation. Fade the noise and trust your eyes. Similar was said with King Henry not getting targets. Well how about he is a mutant, coaching changes so that Dion Lewis wasn’t getting touches and he became the best running back in the NFL getting 300+ touches. The rest is history.
Jonathan Taylor went in round 2 last year because of reports of Mack, committee and lack of targets. Imagine a mutant running back landing on a run first team with a beasty offensive line. Do not over think it in my opinion. Even NFL teams overthink it. Eagles passing on Justin Jefferson in the draft. Jalen Reagor was going to fit into their offense and stretch the field. Meanwhile JJ played against SEC competition and had a historically great final year in college. The Bengals sure didn’t make that mistake with Ja’Marr Chase and I didn’t make that mistake with Elijah Moore in 2021.
Did you watch the Ram’s games during the Sean McVay era prior to the Matthew Stafford trade? Jared Goff’s arm strength was crippling the ceilings of the skill players on this team. Rams were running 3 receiver sets well above league average. Add a QB who can sling it to McVay’s playbook and Kupp becoming a top 10 receiver was seemingly inevitable. I call this exercising a common football sense approach to fantasy football. You aren’t going to forecast a historic season for Kupp but if you took him at value based upon ADP/Common Sense then you were rewarded. Will he produce another historical season? Maybe not but it is a potential outcome considering nothing has changed in 2022. It is might actually a better offense come August. Cam Akers is healthy and Stafford has a full year with this offense under his belt.
Sound familiar? Year two of an offense with Super Bowl aspirations and a gun slinging Quarterback. A team stacked with offensive skill playmakers. A good defense is a plus. The GOAT Tom Brady’s ADP was too low and he offered the potential to crack the top 5 QBS without not finishing outside the top 10 QBs. It was a win win. So dig deep and utilize statistics but never lose sight of common sense fantasy/real football knowledge.
Ongoing rankings that will change leading up to the 2022 regular season. This season will be quite different from the previous two seasons. I am anticipating the 1st 18 week season without ridiculous COVID protocols in 2022. WOOT WOOT!!!
As Always,
May the Fantasy Force Be With You.
Twitter @FFPmoonman
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