Targeting elite fantasy football quarterbacks in the first 3 rounds is risky because you may miss out on important RB1, WR1 and TE1 options. This year presents fantasy owners with the probability that there players contract covid 19 and misses a minimum of 4 weeks. This means if you draft a QB early and he plays every game. Then you may have made the correct choice. It also works for late round quarterbacks but this year’s group do not offer league winning 400+ point upside.
Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott are head and shoulders above the late round quarterbacks. Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford have upside even when ranked outside the top 5. Only Matt Ryan doesn’t offer rushing upside in my top 8. Im siding with investing in this group of 12 Quarterbacks if the price is right. While drafting some teams built them regardless of ADP.
Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings
1. Lamar Jackson (Ravens) – Negative regression may be imminent for the Baltimore Ravens offense in 2020. Lamar Jackson replicating 36 passing touchdowns and 1,200+ rushing yards will be difficult. However Lamar Jackson offers numerous ways to repeat as the #1 overall fantasy quarterback. Including the covid 19 factor and the possibility the Ravens will again be dominant in 2020. This will be LJ’s second full season. He rushed for 7 touchdowns in 2019 and can beat that. 900 rushing yards seems inevitable and LJ should continue his progression as a viable throwing QB. Do we think Lamar has reached his ceiling as a real life NFL player? The answer in NO! When looking back on all the years that produced quarterbacks not repeating as the #1 Fantasy Football option. The stars didn’t align as they will for Baltimore in 2020.
2. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) – Mahomes was in Lamar Jackson’s shoes entering last season. He didn’t regressed negatively in 2019 and even without injury would have finished behind Lamar. Mahomes is a safe bet for production, the best QB in the game, surrounded by offensive weapons, a good overall team and elite coaching. He put up 50 touchdowns in 2018 and 26 in 2019. That is good for an average of 38 touchdowns per year. 40+ if you take into account his injury.
3. Kyler Murray (Cardinals) – Finished 7th amongst quarterbacks in fantasy points his rookie season. An average at best offensive line will lead to inconsistent production from the offense in 2020 but overall at season’s end the Cardinals will provide production more than less. Year two of this offense could be what fantasy friends wanted in 2018. Murray offers rushing upside and should improve on his 24(20 passing) total tds in 2018. However drafting him as the 3rd best quarterback is drafting him near his ceiling. Draft accordingly.
4. Dak Prescott (Cowboys) – Gone are the days when we found value in the mid to late rounds. Dak is now just outside the top tier of QBs. A durable quarterback with rushing upside, behind a good offensive line and in an elite offense means fantasy gold. Similar to Murray, Dak’s ADP means drafting him over a skill position. Waiting on a QB in drafts is a good strategy depending on your league rules.
5. Matt Ryan (Falcons) – Trying to find that QB who sneaks into the top 6? Year 2 of Dirk Koeter will be better for Ryan and company. Matty Ice should be slinging it around this year. The Falcons have an underrated offensive line and favorable fantasy schedule. Gurley in the passing game and less pressure on Matt Ryan is also favorable. Hayden Hurst is a better blocker which will benefit the run and pass game. Calvin Ridley has the skillset to be a WR1. It makes fantasy football sense to take Falcons if you can get them for value in the draft.
6. Russell Wilson (Seahawks) – Russell should finish between 4th and 12th at season’s end. Injuries to running backs and a weak offensive line limit his upside. This offense is built on the run and Russell being efficient with plays off that setup. Still, we must respect Wilson’s ability to take over a game and D.K. Metcalf could be a 1,500 yard monster if he takes a year two leap.
7. Josh Allen (Bills) – Buffalo adds rookie running back Zack Moss and Stefon Diggs. This offense has every piece to operate at full speed. Rushing upside and another year under his belt aid in Allen being a candidate to crack the top Mahomes/Lamar tier.
8. Deshaun Watson (Texans) – No Nuk makes a difference for fantasy purposes. Brandin Cook is a good fit for the offense and David Johnson will surprise the haters. Expecting an inconsistent season from Watson. He presents huge weekly upside though and can take games over on the ground. Not targeting Watson but will draft him depending on the league.
9. Matthew Stafford (Lions) – The Lions offense is sneaky good for fantasy purposes. It is led by Stafford, he can sling if gamescript dictates and has a deep set of skill position players. Expecting Stafford to build of his good start in 2019.
10. Tom Brady (Buccaneers) – Expecting Bruce Arians to run the ball and utilize the short passing game to ensure Tom’s comfort. Should be a tale of two seasons as the playbook will open up for the deep ball in the second half. The running backs need to step up and the offensive line needs to protect. It will take time for this offense to develop continuity.
11. Carson Wentz (Eagles) – His pocket awareness is fun to watch and it’ll be crucial in 2020 with a not so top 10 offensive line. Carson is the type of QB who can sling it. So he offers fantasy value every week. Pass friendly team is a positive, injury risk is not. I like Wentz’s ceiling to be this tier of QBs. Not expecting a finish above 9th at season’s end.
12. Aaron Rodgers (Packers) – Finding relevancy again in fantasy football because of a chip on his shoulder in 2020? Rodgers could surprise some people with a flash back to his glory days this season. This team is good enough for Rodgers to produce an outlier season due to his efficiency potential. Its an overall good team in position for success as it enters year 2 of the offense.
May the Fantasy Force Be With You.
Follow Moon Man on Twitter @FFPmoonman
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