Running back Alvin Kamara has gone in the 1st round of many Fantasy Football Drafts. He has also dropped to the early 2nd round in some drafts. It is clear to me that the New Orleans Saints will use a running back by committee. Kamara will lead the way in weeks 1-4 with Mark Ingram suspended. Expect 16-22 touches per game during this period.
New Orleans Saints Schedule
Week 1 home to Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Week 2 home to Cleveland Browns.
Week 3 at Atlanta Falcons.
Week 4 at New York Giants.
Week 5 home to Washington Redskins.
Week 6 Bye.
Week 7 at Baltimore Ravens.
Week 8 at Minnesota Vikings.
Looking at the matchups for the Saints. Kamara will enjoy favorable matchups the first four weeks. Come week 5 when Ingram returns, the matchups become difficult.
The Redskins should be a top 10 rushing defense and should be attacked through the air. The Ravens are a top 5 defense overall and the Vikings are an elite rushing defense. Mark Ingram returns to a difficult schedule which limits his fantasy value through week 8.
Tieing everything together. Alvin Kamara will get off to a hot start while his receiving abilities will keep him flowing through week 8. The signing of running back Mike Gillisee will vulture a couple rushing touchdowns early on. While rookie Boston Scott will effect Kamara’s targets early on. If Scott produces, more plays will be thrown his way and he should continue to snag targets with Ingram back in the mix. Temper expectations with Ingram in 2018, especially when he returns.
All in all. Im still lower than most on Alvin Kamara and still recommend him as a late 1st round draft pick (12 team leagues, full ppr). With Boston Scott and Mark Ingram in the fold taking away from Kamara’s upside. Cam Meredith and Tre’Quan Smith are upgrades in the receiving game. Drew Brees should pass the ball more in 2018.
Kamara’s weekly touch/target rate will be between 12-18 per week after week 4. He has a ceiling of 304 touches. Im projecting him to for 76 touches weeks 1-4. Weeks 5-17 will produce 192 touches. Thats 268 touches which is good enough in that offense to produce low end rb 1 numbers often. His lack of rushing touchdowns will be a negative.
There is just too many sure fire backs ahead of him in my rankings (https://ffphilosophy.com/2018/08/28/top-100-fantasy-football-running-backs-period/).
(Teams Going Off + Thoughts Flexed In) = Combination Lineups
May the Fantasy Force Be With You.
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